Category: Investment Report
Global vision Global liquidity is decelerating – Liquidity will remain ample, but its momentum declines. This will continue in H2 in the context of taper talks and of a strong recovery – draining investable liquidity. Good global, but very heterogenous growth – Good global and synchronized growth in advanced economies in H2. China decelerating back […]
Global vision Global liquidity has reached the peak of its cycle in Q1 2021 – Liquidity will remain ample, but its momentum will decline. China has started to contain its credit cycle (shadow banking). Stronger economic recovery from Q2 will further drain investable liquidity Good global, but very heterogenous – Cyclical growth. Strong US recovery […]
THE YEAR OF ALL RECORDS Retrospective After starting 2020 at an all-time high, the US stock markets as well as all other financial centers have sharply corrected. As the Covid-19 pandemic accelerates, governments have taken unprecedented decisions, resulting into the fastest and most severe recession. Central banks and governments have offered hitherto unimaginable answers […]
Global vision New economic cycle, with more volatile inflation. Slowbalisation Liquidity profusion will continue. Pandemics will affect long-term potential growth in G7, through the low marginal productivity of new debt. Resumption of intense liquidity injections by the Fed Fed will compensate for the lack of fiscal stimulus in Q4 (political gridlock). Funds’ redirection by the […]
Strategy and Macro Asset Allocation Subpar growth, disinflation. Resumption of intense liquidity injections by the Fed Growth: temporary relapse. More uncertain U-shape pattern G-Zero world. Multilateralism and climate action in the waiting room More healthy capital flows Quality assets will remain scarce and expensive Normalization of risk appetite, lower speculation Macro perspectives Covid-19 and […]
ASSET ALLOCATION In Q2 and Q3 advanced economies managed to avoid disruptions of their capital / credit markets and to engineer a tentative recovery. The resiliency of the pandemic, as well as the growing cautiousness of consumers / firms necessitate further – decisive – actions. A more solidary and reinforced Europe siding with a different […]
Strategy and Macro Asset Allocation Financial repression continues With Fed shift from re-liquefaction to reflation (Too) Prudent institutions at odds with gambling retail investors U-shape economic recovery Pandemics not over, but no global lockdown Weak USD if favorable for financial markets Prefer credit and inflation linked bonds Economic fear remains dominant, considering the current deterioration […]
RETROSPECTIVE US equity markets finish best quarter in more than 2 decades US stocks wrapped up their best quarter in more than 20 years, a remarkable rally after the coronavirus pandemic brought business around the world to a virtual standstill. Just three months ago, investors were lamenting the end of the bull market—and the longest […]
STRATEGY AND MACRO Asset Allocation Rosy scenario more likely than dark one 2020 recession will deeply impact economies Great Unknown for 2020-2021 Huge debt and deficits are not an issue yet Risky assets consider pandemic as temporary Liquidity driven Equities are ahead of fundamentals Sovereign bonds still in crisis mode Once again, the tidal wave […]
STRATEGY AND MACRO Asset Allocation A global framework still very unstable… … where, worst case is avoided, for now But prepare for delicate U-shape pattern ahead Maintain an ¨off-road¨ vehicle investment approach Expect further volatility and rapid rotations Macro perspectives Storm-riders The World’s perspectives are particularly opaque. The sanitary crisis remains a unique […]