Category: Investment Report
STRATEGY AND MACRO Asset Allocation A tidal wave of global liquidity A trade truce, finally End of deflation scare Low odds of a global recession in H1 2020 QE4 maybe. But not for sure… The world has become growingly complex in the past couple of years. Therefore, mega-trends deserve particular scrutiny. They will, one day, […]
RETROSPECTIVE An exceptional year for the financial markets despite growing risks Stock markets rose on average by 27% in 2019, bond indices between 7% and 14% and gold by 15% despite a difficult environment: The rise of nationalism and protectionism. A multipolar world with brutal leaders, Donald Trump, Recep Erdogan, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Jair […]
RETROSPECTIVE An exceptional year for the financial markets despite growing risks Stock markets rose on average by 27% in 2019, bond indices between 7% and 14% and gold by 15% despite a difficult environment: The rise of nationalism and protectionism. A multipolar world with brutal leaders, Donald Trump, Recep Erdogan, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Jair […]
Strategy and Macro Asset Allocation Embedded political chaos Macro fatigue A transitory of window low volatility Currency developments as a swing factor Bonds essentially expensive, but scarce Equities relatively attractive, but fragile Fundamentals remain about adequate, not more. Liquidity provision and forward guidance by central banks remain the key supportive factor. The disconnect between […]
Strategy and Macro Asset Allocation Unstable equilibrium for long-term interest rates Risky assets have become expensive Currency volatility may resume Ineffective monetary policy Fiscal panic? A cautious approach While the worst has been avoided in Osaka and trade negotiations are not being halted, the situation is not yet resolved. Central banks have opted for […]
Strategy and Macro Asset Allocation China, as the determining macro factor Come-back of (geo)politics Expect further hesitations ahead Certainly, US-China trade negotiations are crucial. Both countries need a truce – say a minimum agreement – to avoid significant negative side effects on the global economy. This has attracted the attention of the media. Nevertheless, we […]
Strategy and Macro Asset allocation Disoriented investors barely participate in rising risky assets Rapid shift from recession to reflation mode Monetary loosening supports markets… but will not exert traction on economies We continue to navigate the current global landscape with a full investment mode, though we pay attention to tail risks and remain focused […]
Retrospective The Fed adopts a cautious approach given the recession risks The Fed brutally changes its monetary policy stance, which goes from a restrictive mode – balance sheet shrinking, and 3 to 4 rates hikes expected in 2019 and 2020) – to a (very) dovish tone, including only one rate hike in 2020 and slowing […]
Strategy and Macro Asset allocation We consider the global investment landscape as complex and potentially volatile. The ongoing change in liquidity regime is not over yet. Last year markets’ corrections proved valuable in a) addressing growing signs of speculation b) modifying investors’ complacent mood, namely retail ones. The central banks’ pause in its normalization process […]
Strategy and Macro Asset allocation In 2018, lots of institutional investors have had an exaggerated reaction. Their herd mentality actually favored the continuation of carry trades during the 3 first quarters of 2018. But Q4 featured a hard landing as risk-off resurrected brutally, pushing nearly all asset classes into negative territory. Consequently, the consensus has […]