Category: Investment Report
Global vision Long-term macro regime. Towards shorter and risker cycles than in past decades Imbalances, debt, sticky / resilient inflation, and geopolitics argue for more cyclicality and variations in economic cycles Financial conditions will continue tightening. After plateauing in T4 2021, global liquidity has started to contract in 2022. Higher oil prices and sanctions on […]
Retrospective The Russian invasion triggered a risky assets sell-off The pandemic is not even over as the latest lockdowns in China illustrate, and the war in Ukraine started. It is putting global supply chains through another test. Distortions in supply because of the destruction of war and disabled supply chains, sanctions, and voluntary self-sanctioning all […]
Global vision Long-term macro regime. Prepare for shorter and brisker cycles vs last decades Imbalances, debt, sticky / resilient inflation, and geopolitics argue for more cyclicality and variations in economic cycles Financial conditions will continue tightening. After plateauing T421, global liquidity has started to contract in 22 because of central banks, higher oil prices and […]
Global vision Long-term macro regime. Growth below potential and more volatile inflation. Demographic and debt undermine potential growth. Coupled with digitalization, it fuels secular disinflationary pressures which collide with – cyclical – inflationary tensions LT macro regime. Inflation durable irritation deteriorates business cycle perspectives Higher and much more volatile inflation will challenge the […]
The return of inflation Retrospective Inflation significantly higher than expected US inflation rose in November at an unprecedented rate in nearly 40 years. The price increase reached 6.8%. Many factors contributed to this surge, whether transitory or more structural. At the same time, inflation in the euro area hit a record high in November at […]
Global vision Global liquidity is decelerating – Liquidity will remain ample, but its momentum declines. This will continue in H2 in the context of taper talks and of a strong recovery – draining investable liquidity. Good global, but very heterogenous growth – Good global and synchronized growth in advanced economies in H2. China decelerating back […]
Global vision Global liquidity has reached the peak of its cycle in Q1 2021 – Liquidity will remain ample, but its momentum will decline. China has started to contain its credit cycle (shadow banking). Stronger economic recovery from Q2 will further drain investable liquidity Good global, but very heterogenous – Cyclical growth. Strong US recovery […]
THE YEAR OF ALL RECORDS Retrospective After starting 2020 at an all-time high, the US stock markets as well as all other financial centers have sharply corrected. As the Covid-19 pandemic accelerates, governments have taken unprecedented decisions, resulting into the fastest and most severe recession. Central banks and governments have offered hitherto unimaginable answers […]
Global vision New economic cycle, with more volatile inflation. Slowbalisation Liquidity profusion will continue. Pandemics will affect long-term potential growth in G7, through the low marginal productivity of new debt. Resumption of intense liquidity injections by the Fed Fed will compensate for the lack of fiscal stimulus in Q4 (political gridlock). Funds’ redirection by the […]
Strategy and Macro Asset Allocation Subpar growth, disinflation. Resumption of intense liquidity injections by the Fed Growth: temporary relapse. More uncertain U-shape pattern G-Zero world. Multilateralism and climate action in the waiting room More healthy capital flows Quality assets will remain scarce and expensive Normalization of risk appetite, lower speculation Macro perspectives Covid-19 and […]