September 2023 – Inflation in the USA has fallen sharply from its peak in 2022. In Switzerland, it is at 2020 levels. In Europe, inflation has also fallen from its peaks, but still appears to be at high levels, with energy imports and other factors still weighing on prices…
July 2023 – While China is already in the process of cutting rates, it is the US Federal Reserve (FED) that the market is looking at first. The aim of the rate hike, announced at the end of 2021, was to stop fuelling growth as it exited Covid and to curb inflation as quickly as possible…
Artificial intelligence, what impact? In this latest edition of our monthly report update: Everyone’s talking about it ; What uses for AI? ; and Who will be the financial winners? Assessment of the economic situation US economy slows, but employment remains solid; OPEC+ cuts production quotas further; and The US debt ceiling, a […]
April 2023 – The sharp rise in the cost of credit and the resilience of inflation are testing investors’ nerves. But both the next recession and the next major financial crack have never been so “expected” […]
Global vision LT macro regime. Uneven and volatile economic cycles Imbalances, debt, above average inflation, and G-zero fuel elevated variations in economic cycles. Real yields should gradually converge back to zero and US 10-year yield range between 3-4% Real yields and financial conditions in the eye of the storm Improving global liquidity stopped real rates […]
Mean reversion is the key concept describing financial markets’ behaviour during the month of January. Even if this sort of pattern is not new at the start of a year following a very negative year for financial assets, it has been very pronounced at the start of 2023. Stocks and sectors that have been […]
After a hesitant start of the month, waiting for US inflation figures on the 13th and for the outcome of the last Fed meeting of the year on the 14th, financial markets had a very short-lived party lasting just one afternoon, following a larger than expected retreat of inflation in November. The next day, […]
Global vision LT macro regime. Uneven and volatile economic cycles Imbalances, debt, sticky inflation, and geopolitics result in elevated cyclicality in economic cycles. We expect a US 10-year yield come back towards 3%. Tight financial conditions (FC) in the West, unlike China Contraction of global liquidity led by US (QT), continues. China departs with more […]
Global vision LT macro regime. Shorter and risker cycles than in past decades. Imbalances, debt, resurging inflation, and geopolitics result in more cyclicality and variations in economic cycles US and China financial conditions (FC) on their way to neutral. Deceleration of global liquidity from late 21 continues. Concomitant rise of USD, correction of risky assets […]
Global vision Long-term macro regime. Towards shorter and risker cycles than in past decades Imbalances, debt, sticky / resilient inflation, and geopolitics argue for more cyclicality and variations in economic cycles Financial conditions will continue tightening. After plateauing in T4 2021, global liquidity has started to contract in 2022. Higher oil prices and sanctions on […]