Artificial intelligence, what impact? In this latest edition of our monthly report update: Everyone’s talking about it ; What uses for AI? ; and Who will be the financial winners? Assessment of the economic situation US economy slows, but employment remains solid; OPEC+ cuts production quotas further; and The US debt ceiling, a […]
Climbing the wall of worry In this latest edition of our monthly report update: These are anxious times ; Financial markets are a discounting machine ; Glass half full or half empty? ; Inflation continues to slow down; Stress among US regional banks is damping US economy; The World Equity Index is up by […]
Global vision LT macro regime. Uneven and volatile economic cycles Imbalances, debt, above average inflation, and G-zero fuel elevated variations in economic cycles. Real yields should gradually converge back to zero and US 10-year yield range between 3-4% Real yields and financial conditions in the eye of the storm Improving global liquidity stopped real rates […]
Mean reversion is the key concept describing financial markets’ behaviour during the month of January. Even if this sort of pattern is not new at the start of a year following a very negative year for financial assets, it has been very pronounced at the start of 2023. Stocks and sectors that have been […]
After a hesitant start of the month, waiting for US inflation figures on the 13th and for the outcome of the last Fed meeting of the year on the 14th, financial markets had a very short-lived party lasting just one afternoon, following a larger than expected retreat of inflation in November. The next day, […]
Global vision LT macro regime. Uneven and volatile economic cycles Imbalances, debt, sticky inflation, and geopolitics result in elevated cyclicality in economic cycles. We expect a US 10-year yield come back towards 3%. Tight financial conditions (FC) in the West, unlike China Contraction of global liquidity led by US (QT), continues. China departs with more […]
Global vision LT macro regime. Shorter and risker cycles than in past decades. Imbalances, debt, resurging inflation, and geopolitics result in more cyclicality and variations in economic cycles US and China financial conditions (FC) on their way to neutral. Deceleration of global liquidity from late 21 continues. Concomitant rise of USD, correction of risky assets […]
Global vision Long-term macro regime. Towards shorter and risker cycles than in past decades Imbalances, debt, sticky / resilient inflation, and geopolitics argue for more cyclicality and variations in economic cycles Financial conditions will continue tightening. After plateauing in T4 2021, global liquidity has started to contract in 2022. Higher oil prices and sanctions on […]
Global vision Long-term macro regime. Prepare for shorter and brisker cycles vs last decades Imbalances, debt, sticky / resilient inflation, and geopolitics argue for more cyclicality and variations in economic cycles Financial conditions will continue tightening. After plateauing T421, global liquidity has started to contract in 22 because of central banks, higher oil prices and […]
Global vision Long-term macro regime. Growth below potential and more volatile inflation. Demographic and debt undermine potential growth. Coupled with digitalization, it fuels secular disinflationary pressures which collide with – cyclical – inflationary tensions LT macro regime. Inflation durable irritation deteriorates business cycle perspectives Higher and much more volatile inflation will challenge the […]