Category: Investment Report
ASSET ALLOCATION In Q2 and Q3 advanced economies managed to avoid disruptions of their capital / credit markets and to engineer a tentative recovery. The resiliency of the pandemic, as well as the growing cautiousness of consumers / firms necessitate further – decisive – actions. A more solidary and reinforced Europe siding with a different […]
Strategy and Macro Asset Allocation Financial repression continues With Fed shift from re-liquefaction to reflation (Too) Prudent institutions at odds with gambling retail investors U-shape economic recovery Pandemics not over, but no global lockdown Weak USD if favorable for financial markets Prefer credit and inflation linked bonds Economic fear remains dominant, considering the current deterioration […]
RETROSPECTIVE US equity markets finish best quarter in more than 2 decades US stocks wrapped up their best quarter in more than 20 years, a remarkable rally after the coronavirus pandemic brought business around the world to a virtual standstill. Just three months ago, investors were lamenting the end of the bull market—and the longest […]
STRATEGY AND MACRO Asset Allocation Rosy scenario more likely than dark one 2020 recession will deeply impact economies Great Unknown for 2020-2021 Huge debt and deficits are not an issue yet Risky assets consider pandemic as temporary Liquidity driven Equities are ahead of fundamentals Sovereign bonds still in crisis mode Once again, the tidal wave […]
STRATEGY AND MACRO Asset Allocation A global framework still very unstable… … where, worst case is avoided, for now But prepare for delicate U-shape pattern ahead Maintain an ¨off-road¨ vehicle investment approach Expect further volatility and rapid rotations Macro perspectives Storm-riders The World’s perspectives are particularly opaque. The sanitary crisis remains a unique […]
RETROSPECTIVE Economic data starting to indicate the gravity The coronavirus outbreak which began in China but has since spread to encompass over 140 countries worldwide continues to wreak havoc in the global economy, and looks set to continue to do so for some time to come. There remains a great deal of uncertainty regarding the […]
STRATEGY AND MACRO Asset Allocation A tidal wave of global liquidity A trade truce, finally End of deflation scare Low odds of a global recession in H1 2020 QE4 maybe. But not for sure… The world has become growingly complex in the past couple of years. Therefore, mega-trends deserve particular scrutiny. They will, one day, […]
RETROSPECTIVE An exceptional year for the financial markets despite growing risks Stock markets rose on average by 27% in 2019, bond indices between 7% and 14% and gold by 15% despite a difficult environment: The rise of nationalism and protectionism. A multipolar world with brutal leaders, Donald Trump, Recep Erdogan, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Jair […]
RETROSPECTIVE An exceptional year for the financial markets despite growing risks Stock markets rose on average by 27% in 2019, bond indices between 7% and 14% and gold by 15% despite a difficult environment: The rise of nationalism and protectionism. A multipolar world with brutal leaders, Donald Trump, Recep Erdogan, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Jair […]
Strategy and Macro Asset Allocation Embedded political chaos Macro fatigue A transitory of window low volatility Currency developments as a swing factor Bonds essentially expensive, but scarce Equities relatively attractive, but fragile Fundamentals remain about adequate, not more. Liquidity provision and forward guidance by central banks remain the key supportive factor. The disconnect between […]