Publications

Monthly report
Monthly report

April 2024 – With the crossing of its technical resistance at USD 2070/2080 per ounce, gold has begun a new “secular” bullish cycle, driven by central bank buying and ongoing “de-dollariza􀆟on”. The low ETF positioning could accentuate this trend. The US manufacturing sector returns to growth mode, buoyed by the construction sector. Inflation in Europe continues to fall…

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

01.04.2024 – The official PMI numbers released this weekend point to accelerating growth. Although these numbers will have to be “validated” by the private measures, evidence indeed points toward marginal improvement on multiple fronts. This increases the odds that the Chinese equity market…

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

15.03.2024 – Just as Powell indirectly admitted that inflation is not the major concern for setting monetary policy this year, gold broke out to new highs. Interestingly, western investors are not positioned for this move, with flows into major gold ETFs still negative. Gold has likely started its next leg up…

Monthly report
Monthly report

March 2024 – The US economy remains resilient, while positive signs are emerging in Europe despite the agricultural crisis. Inflation expectations rise sharply in the US, “postponing” the Fed’s first rate cut in June. Equity markets continue to rise, but still with a limited number of bullish participants. Inflation expectations are rising sharply…

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

23.02.2024 – US January CPI failed to meet the expectations for another sizable drop, with core CPI almost unchanged and headline CPI falling from 3.4% to 3.1%. Most importantly, core services CPI ex-housing has reaccelerated from 3.9% to 4.3% YoY, and 0.85% just in January…

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

15.02.2024 – Equities have continued to be resilient in the last couple of weeks, but this latest move higher has been driven be an increasingly small number of companies. The second half of February is one of the weakest 2 weeks of the year from a seasonality standpoint. We are overdue for a breather…

Monthly report
Monthly report

February 2024 – The first rate cuts are expected between March and June, whether from the Fed, the ECB or the SNB. The medium and long parts of the curve are still looking for an adequate valuation. A  gradual lengthening of duration is recommended. Equity markets are a little overbought, but to be accumulated on weakness…

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

17.01.2024 – While certain specific measures (temporary staff, hours worked, ISM employment) continue to suggest that the labor market should weaken, for the time being, jobless claims and payrolls have started the year echoing the same message: the labor market remains strong. The NFIB survey saw a rebound in compensation plans for small businesses,…

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

04.12.2023 – While we still expect equities to remain resilient into year-end, the collapse in volatility is offering investors with an opportunity to hedge some equity exposure for the coming quarter, during which the interplay between economic strength, yields and profit growth will become trickier. Put options are currently the cheapest in years.

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

17.11.2023 – Short-term consolidation is likely, but broad-based participation in this rebound does not suggests material weakness into year-end. The nature of this rally is however fragile, as it relies on economic data being just weak enough to keep a lid on yields, not so weak as to suggest a recession, or too strong to push yields higher.