Weekly

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

13.05.2024 – The softer economic data has allowed yields and the USD to retrace, helping equities recover from the recent minor pullback. But data will need to stay sufficiently resilient to support nominal growth and
earnings, which seems likely for now. Long-term yields are unlikely to have much more downside…

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

23.04.2024 – The technology sector erased almost its entire 2024 gains, while other sector are showing much more resilience, suggesting that the rotation we’ve been expecting is under way due to the shifting macroeconomic environment. Although it could run a bit further, we remain of the view that…

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

01.04.2024 – The official PMI numbers released this weekend point to accelerating growth. Although these numbers will have to be “validated” by the private measures, evidence indeed points toward marginal improvement on multiple fronts. This increases the odds that the Chinese equity market…

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

15.03.2024 – Just as Powell indirectly admitted that inflation is not the major concern for setting monetary policy this year, gold broke out to new highs. Interestingly, western investors are not positioned for this move, with flows into major gold ETFs still negative. Gold has likely started its next leg up…

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

23.02.2024 – US January CPI failed to meet the expectations for another sizable drop, with core CPI almost unchanged and headline CPI falling from 3.4% to 3.1%. Most importantly, core services CPI ex-housing has reaccelerated from 3.9% to 4.3% YoY, and 0.85% just in January…

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

15.02.2024 – Equities have continued to be resilient in the last couple of weeks, but this latest move higher has been driven be an increasingly small number of companies. The second half of February is one of the weakest 2 weeks of the year from a seasonality standpoint. We are overdue for a breather…

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

17.01.2024 – While certain specific measures (temporary staff, hours worked, ISM employment) continue to suggest that the labor market should weaken, for the time being, jobless claims and payrolls have started the year echoing the same message: the labor market remains strong. The NFIB survey saw a rebound in compensation plans for small businesses,…

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

04.12.2023 – While we still expect equities to remain resilient into year-end, the collapse in volatility is offering investors with an opportunity to hedge some equity exposure for the coming quarter, during which the interplay between economic strength, yields and profit growth will become trickier. Put options are currently the cheapest in years.

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

17.11.2023 – Short-term consolidation is likely, but broad-based participation in this rebound does not suggests material weakness into year-end. The nature of this rally is however fragile, as it relies on economic data being just weak enough to keep a lid on yields, not so weak as to suggest a recession, or too strong to push yields higher.

Charts of the Week
Charts of the Week

31.10.2023 – Breadth remains poor and large cap weakness has removed a key pillar of strength. Investors are still handing on to the idea of an end-of-year rally, and a short-term rally is of course possible, but investors should wait for this breakdown to be invalided before adding exposure.