17.11.2023 – Short-term consolidation is likely, but broad-based participation in this rebound does not suggests material weakness into year-end. The nature of this rally is however fragile, as it relies on economic data being just weak enough to keep a lid on yields, not so weak as to suggest a recession, or too strong to push yields higher.
31.10.2023 – Breadth remains poor and large cap weakness has removed a key pillar of strength. Investors are still handing on to the idea of an end-of-year rally, and a short-term rally is of course possible, but investors should wait for this breakdown to be invalided before adding exposure.
01.10.2023 – The equity selloff picked up pace in the last couple of weeks, butmarketsstarted losingmomentum back in July, just as yields, the dollar and oil embarkedon a simultaneous rally. The market’s ability to regain some upside momentum will largely depend on the direction of this trio.
11.09.2023 – As the ECB and Fed take the stage next week, EU and US yields remain close to this cycle’s high. Both central banks are facing inflation levels above their target, but the ECB must contend with a much weaker economy.
September 2023 – Inflation in the USA has fallen sharply from its peak in 2022. In Switzerland, it is at 2020 levels. In Europe, inflation has also fallen from its peaks, but still appears to be at high levels, with energy imports and other factors still weighing on prices…
20.08.2023 – Equities have so far gone through a fairly standardpullback after this year’s remarkable rally. Major indices are on/approaching important supports levels.
04.08.2023 – The Fed hikes and emphasizes data dependency; The ECB hikes and softens its hawkish rhetoric; Economic surprises diverge significantly between the US and EU; The BOJ adjusts its yield curve control and adds pressure on yields; Further deceleration in earnings for the S&P500.
19.07.2023 – In this latest edition of our weekly update: The immaculate disinflation?; Multiple expansion in the driving seat; Base effects on inflation are turning into a headwind; Markets expect earnings of the top 10 stocks to surge; Market breadth has recently improved; Most institutions remain underweight global equities; and Institutions have given up on commodities.
July 2023 – While China is already in the process of cutting rates, it is the US Federal Reserve (FED) that the market is looking at first. The aim of the rate hike, announced at the end of 2021, was to stop fuelling growth as it exited Covid and to curb inflation as quickly as possible…
06.06.2023 – In the latest edition of our weekly update: The scoreboard for May ; Investors rush back into tech stocks; The US labor market continues to defy gravity, on the surface…; The services industry is starting to wobble; Using protection?; Japanese equities at 33 year highs Japanese equities; Shareholder friendliness is on the rise[…]