In this latest edition of our monthly report:
Central banks have been effective.
Has recession been avoided?
- Who benefits from their actions?;
- At the peak of reference interest rates;
- A success then?;
- But what of the future?;
- A Barbell strategy;
Assessment of the economic situation
The Chinese economy is failing to pick up, reducing the potential for a rebound in European and US industrial activity. However, inflation is easing and US property prices are rebounding. Volatile data?
- Lower growth expectations for China;
- New home sales in the US;
Financial markets during the year
With the exception of China, all equity markets have risen since the start of the year, albeit with wide disparities. While the Nasdaq is bouncing back after a disastrous 2022, the Swiss equity market is stalling.
- AI boosts Nasdaq 100 and the comeback of Japan;
- FED central rate reached;
- Currencies and precious metals;
Comments on investment decisions
Although we would prefer to see concrete signs of economic recovery in China, Europe and the US before taking a more aggressive stance on equities, our base scenario maintains a neutral view on equities.
- Precious metals, listed real estate (REIT);
- Equity performances, and
- Fixed income, currency and commodity performances.
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